New Research Challenges What Supply Chain Professionals Assume About Hurricanes and Freight Rates
Last Updated September 30, 2026
Ask most people in freight or logistics what happens to trucking rates when a major hurricane hits, and the answer may seem straightforward: rates go up.
New peer-reviewed research suggests the relationship is more complicated.
A study published in Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review examined how five major hurricane landfalls affected the U.S. long-haul dry van truckload spot market. The researchers found that major hurricane landfalls did not significantly affect spot prices or truck volumes in the affected states compared with what would have occurred without the storms.
The findings offer a useful example of why supply chain professionals need to look beyond conventional assumptions when evaluating disruptions, transportation markets and risk.
What the Research Found
The study, by Travis Kulpa, Andrew Balthrop, Jason W. Miller, Rodney Thomas and Matthew Waller, examined five hurricanes: Harvey, Irma, Florence, Michael and Laura.
The researchers used a synthetic control approach to estimate the effects of each hurricane on inbound and outbound long-haul dry van truckload spot prices and volumes. Their analysis drew on spot-market data from a large freight marketplace provider along with Federal Emergency Management Agency data.
The central finding was notable: major hurricane landfalls did not significantly influence trucking spot-market outcomes in the affected state compared with the synthetic control.
That result challenges a common assumption that a major disruption will necessarily produce a corresponding increase in local spot-market prices or changes in truck volumes.
The researchers also conducted a post-hoc analysis that indicated hurricanes often correlated with significant nationwide market volatility. That volatility made it more difficult to isolate the effects of an individual storm on the market.
In other words, a disruption that is highly visible in one location does not necessarily translate into a simple, measurable change in local spot-market outcomes.
Read the full research study: A synthetic control approach to examining the effects of major hurricane landfalls on the US long-haul dry van truckload spot market
Why the Distinction Matters
Supply chain decisions often begin with a reasonable observation and then move quickly toward a conclusion.
A hurricane can disrupt roads, facilities, inventory flows and transportation operations. It may therefore seem logical to assume that affected-state trucking prices will rise as a direct result.
The research shows why that assumption needs to be tested rather than taken for granted.
For professionals managing transportation during hurricane season, the broader market context can matter alongside conditions in an affected state. Nationwide volatility can make prices more difficult to interpret and complicate efforts to determine whether a particular change is attributable to the storm.
That distinction between correlation and causation is important in any data-driven supply chain analysis.
Three Questions to Ask When Evaluating a Disruption
Research like this can be useful as a framework for approaching other supply chain questions.
1. Is the relationship causal?
A disruption and a change in freight prices may occur at the same time without one necessarily causing the other.
Before drawing a conclusion, analysts can ask what the market might have looked like in the absence of the event and whether the available evidence supports a causal relationship.
2. Does the analysis stop at the affected location?
Supply chains operate across interconnected networks.
A disruption in one state can interact with conditions elsewhere in ways that are not immediately visible from a single lane, facility or market. Looking at broader market data can provide additional context for interpreting local changes.
3. What does the evidence support?
The practical value of analysis depends on connecting a business decision to evidence that supports it.
In the hurricane study, the evidence did not support a significant change in affected-state trucking spot-market outcomes relative to the synthetic control. At the same time, the researchers identified nationwide market volatility that complicated the measurement of individual storm effects.
Those distinctions matter when deciding what conclusions can reasonably be drawn from the data.
An Applied Example of Supply Chain Analysis
For professionals building their analytical skills, the study provides a concrete example of how supply chain research can challenge an intuitive assumption.
Instead of simply asking whether a hurricane caused freight rates to increase, an analyst might ask:
- What happened to prices and volumes relative to an appropriate comparison?
- Was the change statistically significant?
- Were other market conditions influencing the result?
- Did the effect appear locally, nationally or across particular parts of the network?
- What conclusions can be supported by the available evidence?
These questions reflect the analytical methods used throughout supply chain management, where decisions can involve procurement, logistics, operations, suppliers, transportation and broader network strategy.
How MSU’s M.S. in Supply Chain Management Develops Analytical Skills
Michigan State University’s online Master of Science in Supply Chain Management is a 31-credit graduate program completed over 20 months and five semesters, with three required three-day on-campus sessions and eight-week online sessions.
The curriculum includes courses covering areas such as supply chain strategy, analysis of supply markets and suppliers, applied data analysis, logistics operations, global supply chain management, strategic sourcing and technology and product innovation management.
The program is designed for individuals with an undergraduate degree plus a minimum of two years of related experience. MSU’s catalog states that students are expected to maintain full-time employment throughout the program. Admission decisions consider an applicant’s overall record, including academic work, work experience, job responsibilities, references and demonstrated potential for graduate and professional success.
For supply chain professionals, research like the hurricane study illustrates how analytical methods can be applied to real transportation and market questions. Rather than relying solely on conventional expectations, professionals can use data and evidence to examine what is happening across the supply chain.
Looking at Supply Chain Decisions Differently
The hurricane research does not suggest that storms are inconsequential to supply chains. Instead, it demonstrates why the relationship between a disruption and a market outcome needs to be examined carefully.
For professionals working in transportation, procurement, logistics or supply chain planning, that approach can provide a useful foundation for evaluating complex problems.
The broader lesson is straightforward: when the conventional answer seems obvious, look at the data before deciding what the data says.
Michigan State University’s online Master of Science in Supply Chain Management program combines online coursework with required on-campus sessions and graduate-level study in supply chain analysis, strategy, technology and operations.
Research source: Kulpa, T., Balthrop, A., Miller, J. W., Thomas, R., & Waller, M. (2026). “A synthetic control approach to examining the effects of major hurricane landfalls on the US long-haul dry van truckload spot market.” Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 209, 104765. View the published article on ScienceDirect
Disclaimer: Program requirements, course offerings and other university information are subject to change. Prospective students should consult Michigan State University for the most current information. Individual experiences and outcomes may vary. This article does not guarantee admission, academic, professional or career outcomes.
